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  "ace2_july_mean": 4.614509767177058,
  "ace2_aug_window_mean": 7.326818874653648,
  "ace2_aug_window_sd": 3.0453657111163817,
  "aug_obs_rank_in_ace2": 15,
  "n_members_plus_one": 52,
  "seas5_aug_vs_era5_mean": 6.908091580451864
 },
 "sst_2026": {
  "nino34_anom": 3.4999607843137253,
  "trop_anom": 1.3873137254901962,
  "mdr_anom": 0.8270392156862746,
  "rel34": 2.112725490196078,
  "rel_mdr": -0.5602156862745098,
  "hindcast_rel34_max": 1.921,
  "hindcast_rel34_max_year": 1997,
  "hindcast_trop_max": 0.505,
  "hindcast_rel_mdr_min": -0.574
 },
 "regressions": {
  "mdr_shear~rel34": {
   "coef": {
    "const": 5.991,
    "rel34": 3.082
   },
   "se": {
    "const": 0.575,
    "rel34": 0.758
   },
   "r2": 0.371
  },
  "mdr_shear~rel34+rel_mdr": {
   "coef": {
    "const": 5.992,
    "rel34": 1.315,
    "rel_mdr": -6.956
   },
   "se": {
    "const": 0.482,
    "rel34": 0.806,
    "rel_mdr": 1.946
   },
   "r2": 0.573
  },
  "mdr_shear~rel34+trop_anom+rel_mdr": {
   "coef": {
    "const": 5.992,
    "rel34": 1.094,
    "trop_anom": 1.589,
    "rel_mdr": -7.17
   },
   "se": {
    "const": 0.489,
    "rel34": 0.915,
    "trop_anom": 2.978,
    "rel_mdr": 2.012
   },
   "r2": 0.578
  },
  "era5~rel34": {
   "coef": {
    "const": 6.386,
    "rel34": 2.564
   },
   "se": {
    "const": 0.475,
    "rel34": 0.626
   },
   "r2": 0.374
  },
  "era5~rel34+rel_mdr": {
   "coef": {
    "const": 6.387,
    "rel34": 0.644,
    "rel_mdr": -7.561
   },
   "se": {
    "const": 0.322,
    "rel34": 0.538,
    "rel_mdr": 1.299
   },
   "r2": 0.722
  },
  "era5~rel34+trop_anom+rel_mdr": {
   "coef": {
    "const": 6.387,
    "rel34": 1.254,
    "trop_anom": -4.395,
    "rel_mdr": -6.969
   },
   "se": {
    "const": 0.296,
    "rel34": 0.555,
    "trop_anom": 1.804,
    "rel_mdr": 1.219
   },
   "r2": 0.774
  }
 },
 "expectations_2026": {
  "era5_rel34_only": 5.416705682339827,
  "era5_rel34_relmdr": 5.597063545084924,
  "ace2_rel34_only": 6.511289608764049,
  "ace2_3term": 8.533379314646403
 }
}